Thursday, October 26, 2006

Fishy Ohio Senate Polls [link]

The poll linked to above, by SurveyUSA, seems unbelievable. It shows Democrat Sherrod Brown with a commanding 57% to 37% lead over Mike DeWine. The other two major polls out show that this is an 8 point race.

DeWine has been a popular senator and has not been tied to any of the recent scandals (including the Bureau of Workers Comp scandal that mostly involved Dems but which the statewide media have long since forgotten). Things just don't feel THAT bad in Ohio. I checked out SurveyUSA's track record and they supposedly have done a fairly good job in the past. But this just does not feel right.

Ahhhh....and it helps to read the small print. Very cute. The composition of the 563 "likely voters" was 35% Rep and 42% Dem. That is a rather small sample (1,000 total people were called) and it is biased towards the Dems.

What is the potential fallout from biased polls? The Republican GOTV effort seems to be going well. I have been called countless times to come and volunteer (I am a state employee so I can't). Yard signs are popping up. Most of the Reps will crawl over broken glass to get to the polls. Will the Dems be so motivated? This is an off year election. If they feel it is in the bag (whether or not the polls are accurate) will they turn out?

We shall see.


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